Articles, Blog

When will I get my Tesla Model 3? Find out exactly when now!

When will I get my Tesla Model 3? Find out exactly when now!


– I built a tool to help you figure out when you’re gonna get a Model 3. It started when I got a call
from Elon the other day. He mentioned there was a
disturbance in the force and that people were getting restless waiting for their Model 3’s. He asked for my help to
ease people’s concerns about this car they’ve
been waiting for so long, and so I thought, what
better way than to use data and use algorithms and come up with a tool that would be beautiful and you could easily understand when you will get that Model 3. Okay, all kidding aside, if you wanna check out
the secret link down below to go straight over to
the Model 3 estimator and see when you’re
gonna get your new car. So the first thing I need to know in order to help predict
when you’ll get your Model 3 is the exact time that you
chose to make your reservation. During the unveiling of the Model 3, Tesla was reporting
exactly how many Model 3’s were being reserved minute by minute. Later, Elon even tweeted
out about how many reservations they had
at that moment in time. So, depending on when you
put in your reservation, and this data we have
about how many reservations were being placed, helps me put you in exactly the right spot with regards to when you
made your reservation and how many people were before you. I also need to know whether or not you’re an existing Tesla owner, because all current owners
actually get priority over anyone else. So whether or not you’ve
stood in line at a store, or made your reservation online, if you aren’t a current owner, then you’re gonna be behind
anybody that currently is. So this plays a big factor in when you’re gonna get your Model 3. Since the unveiling, Elon
has been tweeting out more information about the
delivery strategy as well. That’s gonna help us place exactly when you may get your car. Recently he said, “There
will be just a single motor to begin with and then we will have
a dual motor config… If we are lucky, toward
the end of this year, 2017, or more likely early next year, 2018.” So depending on which options
you want for your Model 3, it’s going to effect when
you actually take delivery. So you enter that information and that helps me place,
based on the other information we know, where you are in line and when you might actually get your car. Following their typical roll-out strategy, Californians will get their cars first followed by the West Coast and then spreading out
over to the East Coast of the United States. When it comes to Canada and Europe and other parts of the world, it’s a bit further down the road as well. So, your location matters, and this is the last bit
of information I need to give you a delivery estimate. Where you’re located also helps me estimate shipping time. For example, here in California, it’s only a couple of days, but in Japan, let’s
say, it’s about 41 days to ship a car from here in California over to wherever you are in Japan. So after you’ve entered
all of your information, just click the big button there that says Tell me When and voila, you get a delivery estimate on a beautiful page that
has a little bit of detail, but something that I hope you’re proud of and you can print out, put on your wall, or give to someone else, or maybe at least share on social media. I have to give a big shout out to Troy at Tesla Motors Club and
all the other folks there that have helped collect all this data and come up with the method and algorithm for predicting when you’re
gonna get your Model 3. They have a Google Sheet
which has much more details, but is using the exact
same logic as I have here. So if you want, I have that
link in the description down below and you can go check that out and find even more details about this prediction model. So remember, when you free the data, your mind will follow. I hope you enjoyed this episode, and I’ll see you back here next time.

Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

96 thoughts on “When will I get my Tesla Model 3? Find out exactly when now!

  1. I do not know that I agree with the existing owner priority, but that is their decision. It seems they would want more new owners before enabling existing owners to get more.

  2. There seems to be a problem with your algorithm. If I enter my data 4/4/2016, non Tesla owner, 60kw eastern time I get August 2018, but if I enter P75D, it comes out September 2018. By late 2018, it should not matter what configuration I choose, everything should be off the shelf by then. As a matter of fact, by late 2018 Tesla will have a gigafactory in NJ, so I should be able to walk into the factory and drive off with whatever version of the car I want. Hell, by 2018, I should be able to get a fully loaded Tesla Semi sooner than you think the Model 3 will be available to me.

  3. That was a bit of fun. Thanks Ben. ๐Ÿ™‚ But the result was disappointing (though not really unexpected). In Melbourne, Australia I was like 12th in line at the store but will have to wait until Sept 18, 2018 – yeeouch!

  4. Since Elon hasn't told people how the queue position will be handled if someone is on the fence about dual motors, it's going to be difficult to estimate anything. You will need some pretty solid data showing how many will not accept RWD in lieu of AWD.

    Tesla can easily do what Dell computer did and let you configure and give the estimated delay based on your choice, before you choose.

    A lot of reservations will evaporate when their number comes up and they realize they can't afford it and only wanted bragging rights at Starbucks with their model 3 wallpaper and their Tesla reservation showing on screen. Warren Buffet might have 300,000 reservations to pull just after shorting 1 million shares of Tesla stock. LOL

    Just 5 more weeks and we will start seeing some model 3 facts posted by owners on YouTube.

  5. Ben, could you play the tune of Que-sera-sera at the beginning. The survey showed large % of reservation holders want AWD-so, I don't think Tesla will wait till the next year to begin AWD production once they delivered/fulfilled all RWD before this year ends.

  6. Well done Ben estimator works like a charm, I have been following you and I appreciate your predictions which are based on data! Data is king! Keep up the good work.

  7. That's great, Ben! We'll see how close these estimates are to actual deliveries. One suggestion, if you're interested. I think it would be helpful for reservation holders in the USA to know what amount of fed tax credit they' might qualify for according to their delivery date estimate. It should be possible, given the numbers and dates, don't you think?

  8. I found a glitch with the calculator. It allows you to enter minute intervals in the timestamp and DOES vary the result if you have a time that's not a round hour vs a round hour. But as soon as you click out of that field it displays the round hour only.

  9. Oct 20th-Dec 7th. Can't remember which day I put in the order… Verification email says 4/1 but I think that was sent out later?

  10. Thanks for building this, Ben! What do the various option levels mean? I assume D means double motor, but what is the difference between the other levels?

  11. Hey Ben nice tool! thanks for your hard work!
    Unrelated to Tesla; Intuit Quickbooks could use a guy like you, their dashboards are so messed up and inaccurate…

  12. Hey Ben, I live in Vancouver and was thinking we'd be part of the west coast wave (after California). The FAQ on Tesla's site says North America, not just United States. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/support/model-3-reservations-faq
    Am wondering where you got the info that Canada would come later? Hope that's not really the case, being that Elon is part Canadian.

  13. I put in the 60 and 75 battery and get the same delivery date this October. Will both batteries be available at the start?

  14. Looks like I'm estimated at October 19th, that's even sooner than I expect. I'm still anticipating November though, just a little cautious I guess.

  15. Ordered it online on 3/31 at around 8 PM

    If I get the M3 P75D (what I want):
    Apr 10th, 2018

    But if I get the M3 75D:
    Feb 15th, 2018

    But if I get the M3 75:
    Nov 3rd, 2017

    Could we get a cost estimator too? Pretty Please?? ๐Ÿ˜€

  16. I reserved mine in November, I want a 75D, this is saying I'll get mine in March. That seems too soon, not that I would complain if it worked out that way.

  17. How legit is the referral codes? Now that I got one from you guys, where do I find it when I (eventually) receive my model 3?
    What do I do with it?

  18. So. The estimator tells me that my reservation done on April 1st last year will get a car half a year later than a tesla owner reserving a car right now. Is this accurate?

  19. Thanks Ben. It is more or less what I've expected.
    December 14th in 2018.๐Ÿ˜ญ
    Good thing about this: The car quality will be better.
    Hopefully. ๐Ÿ˜Ž

  20. I'm in Ireland. Do I choose UK or rest of Europe to get a correct estimate?

    Note : The correct answer is "I've added Ireland now" ๐Ÿ™‚

  21. Reserved within 2 hours of the start, but not a current owner. Estimator says November 16th. Willing to take 60k battery. Plan to Uber with her to educate the general public!

  22. I reserved a year late (March 2017) but it predicts that had I reserved today (June 2017), I would only receive the car one day later? How sad for me!

  23. here's the link in case you're having a hard time finding it https://teslanomics.co/model-3-delivery-estimator
    …and for more detailed info definitely check out Troy's awesome tool he built here –https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-delivery-estimator.77890/#post-1748851

  24. October 25, 2017!!!!!!

    I friggin hate you now……

    (I was in the line outside the Sunnyvale Tesla dealer, made it to the front at about 12, not a current Tesla owner).

  25. The question I have is: What is going to be the default configuration (and price) for the first cars rolling off the Model 3 assembly line?

  26. I reserved on 31st at about 5pm UK time… in the UK. Looks like around 25th Oct 2018 ! So time to find a model S… Thanks very much for the info Ben.. much appreciated. I hope a RWD only S85 will do for the UK Winter…

  27. 75D, Canada, ordered 10PM March 31st. Expectation June 4th, 2018. Pretty reasonable. Wouldn't mind if it is available a month or two earlier.

  28. You didn't create this tool, Troy from TMC did. Despite giving credit to Troy buried deep in the bottom of your description and at the end of the video, the video is still very misleading, and the comments on the video prove that.

  29. Don't have a reservation yet but been thinking about it for such a long time….may time to pull the plug…. ๐Ÿ™

  30. Hi, everybody. The Google Sheets version is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rKDw72FOIMmSY8wBVl0ECjAjwYV9shlvRiVKKzfu3L8/ I created this in September 2016 and have been updating it since then.

  31. Hi Ben, can you also using the estimator combined with unit-sold-to date in US for Tesla and calculate the 'probability' of getting a federal tax credit? Thanks! Jeff

  32. Thanks all good now. Hope your a bit out with the predictor as my date is 14/2/19 I am in the Uk was hoping for late 2018

  33. do you really want the Model 3 rushed?? think about that for a moment… having the engineers cut corners and rush to release the car is never a good thing…

  34. I like your prediction as it falls on my birthday. YAY! But…I had to choose Australia as a country as the country I'm from is South Africa and unfortunately you didn't cater for this country yet Tesla does.

  35. Using your app I discovered I'll get my Model 3 in December, 2025. I don't know if I can wait that long! (just kidding, but it will still be hard to wait)

  36. Can you advise on what the algorithm actually is to make this guess. I changed one factor on the calculator and it gave me months different dates. When I chose P75D it said beginning of Sept 2018, when I downgraded it to a 75D, it pushed back to the end of October 2018. That doesn't make sense to me, if Tesla is starting simpler first, i'd get the 75D before the P75D. I also don't think it's going to take that long for delivery.

  37. November 1, 2018!!! For what is described as a "simple" car, a view that I concur with, this is too long to wait. I'm glad that I made the decision to purchase the used 2014 Mercedes CLS550 last month. It is elegant, sporty, and luxurious all in one. Far exceeds the Model 3 for about the same price. I still have the reservation and plan on keeping it to see how the sales pan out. Perhaps when my car is built I'll buy it and sell it for a premium, if the demand is still there. Maybe by then the demand will peter out. I still say that I was all caught up in the hype and technology of the Tesla and that's why I made the reservation. Now after countless of pictures and videos, the Model 3 looks bland. Yes, I know you saw it from 3 feet away, but the interior really, really turns me off. I agree that this is probably the future of things to come, but I'm from an older generation and I like knobs, shiny trimmings, and various gadgets.
    BTW nice job on the estimator and I enjoy your vlogs.

  38. If I already have a model 3 reservation, then I buy a Tesla MS or MX, AFTER the M3 release, let's say September/October this year……. will that change my place in line? Your estimator is showing jan 2019, but if I change to "Tesla owner" and put in a reservation today, shows 12/17… big difference.
    Thanks Ben!

  39. Great job! It may not be accurate but it will interesting to see how close you get to the actual deliveries. Mine is Jan 6th 2019. We'll see! Plenty of time to save up $$$.

  40. Thanks Ben for the data. Hopefully they meet their goals. When do I take the federal tax credit If my Model 3 is finished on December 22 but delivered on January 9, 2018? 2017 or 2018?

  41. You should plot the estimated dates vs actual delivery dates (assuming you can get that data) and see what how well the actual dates fit the estimate data. That would be nice to see.

  42. Your better off using a Magic 8 ball to get a delivery date. Most of the true believers with reservations will not get their vehicles this calendar year. If you are early on the list, beware the first batch will be wrought with quality control issues, mis-aligned panels, squeaky hinges.. etc. Even now Model Xโ€™s are plagued with quality issues. You are better off getting the Model S, Chevy Bolt or wait couple more years for them to work out all the issues.

  43. I signed up early and live on the left coast, but I think the estimated delivery is overly optimistic, Ben. If there are as reported an estimated 10k Tesla employees standing in the front of the line for a model 3 and there will be barely that many model 3's produced in 2017, how can anyone else not living in Cali or working for Tesla expect a 2017 delivery?

  44. I think this tool should be updated based on the reveal event specs and the tens of thousands of cancellations!

  45. I know this very old data now, but sadly my estimate doesn't even fall in the 3 month time frame that the MyTesla page gives me. I would love to see my model 3 in Nov like you suggest, but I seriously doubt that will happen!

  46. The problem is there is a sizable disconnect(several months) between the Teslanomic's estimator and what Tesla's system is telling us. I believe Tesla's update, not Ben's. Ben says November 6th 2017 and Tesla is saying Feb-April 2018.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *