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Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade

Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade

The world is running out of oil. At least that was the idea behind the “peak oil” hypothesis that dominated economic thinking for decades. But it turns out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there’s
a lot more oil in the world than we once thought. The old “peak oil” theory ain’t happening. But what if instead of running out of oil
we just stopped buying the stuff? Most oilmen scoff at the idea. There are one
billion gas guzzling cars on the road worldwide today, and only one tenth of one percent of
them have a plug. OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one
percent. But don’t be so sure. Consider the “S Curve.” S Curves are used to describe the spread of
new technologies over time, like early refrigerators and color TVs. Growth starts off slowly at
first, and then when the product really starts to connect with everyday people: We have liftoff.
Eventually the market gets saturated and growth tapers off, forming the top of the “S”. Predicting the S Curve for electric cars is
extremely difficult, because we’re making assumptions about demand for a type of vehicle
that doesn’t even exist yet: fast, affordable, and spacious cars that have an electric range
of at least 2-to-300 miles. But here’s what we know: In the next few
years Tesla, Nissan and Chevy plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000
range. And other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models
due out in the next four years. By 2020, some of these will be faster, safer, cheaper, and
more convenient than their gasoline counterparts. That sure seems like the point when the S
curve goes vertical. To start an oil crash, you don’t need to
replace all of the cars on the road today. You just need to reduce demand enough to cause
a glut of unwanted oil. Consider the oil crash that started in 2014. That was caused by too much supply,
when producers started pumping out an extra 2 million barrels a day. So when electric vehicles are able to displace
that much on the demand side, it should also cause a crash. When might that happen? Tesla is building factories to go from about
50,000 sales last year to 500,000 in 2020. Let’s assume for a minute that Tesla can
meet its own forecasts. And let’s assume that other carmakers maintain their current
combined market share for plugins. If each electric vehicle displaces about 15
barrels a year, here’s the impact on oil from all the EVs worldwide.
At this rate we hit our benchmark of 2 million barrels of oil a day displaced as early as
2023. That’s an oil crisis. And the thing is, it’s just the beginning. It’s not
at all unreasonable to assume that by 2040 nearly half of the world’s new cars will
have a plug. Sure you’re skeptical. The price of electric
cars still needs to come down, there aren’t yet enough fast charging stations for convenient
long-distance road trips. Many new drivers in developing countries like China and India
will still choose gasoline and diesel. But imagine a future when the rumbling streets
of New York and New Delhi… suddenly fall silent with electric engines. What if global
demand for oil starts to fall—at first by a trickle, but then in a rush. Trillions invested
in oil will be lost, while trillions in new energy will be won. The power of nations will
be shuffled. That’s the promise of the new peak oil, and it may be coming sooner
than you think.

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100 thoughts on “Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade

  1. An electric automobile gets its energy from an energy producing manufacturing plant, of which many of those plants are still coal powered. How do you get around that little problem?

  2. Its now happening by falsely accusing Iran and Venezuela of ridiculous crime so it won't be able to export their oil.

  3. We've been hearing that EVs are the futur for the last 20 yrs… Now Tesla is going bust in 2019 and mainstream manufacturers aren't actually offering much in the way of affordable EV. Still waiting.

  4. Imagine that. The Saudis would actually have to work, produce something and contribute instead of just being hateful arrogant backwards parasites

  5. Remember that still most electricity is generated through the use of fossil fuels, mostly refined from oil.
    This should delay this oil production peak, but not completely prevent it.

  6. Actually, in China, a lot of Uber drivers or drivers for similar car ride share services, they choose electric cars because it is much cheaper to run per km/mile. Also, Chinese government incentives people to buy electric cars.

    Sometimes, it is a bit surprising for me to find that Chinese government is actually doing more in some areas when compared with some Western governments.

  7. I just bought a Nissan Leaf and have a 220 volt charging station in my garage. I have a 150 mile range and since I only use the car for short trips it is the best second car for me. For longer trips I also have a gasoline car. The best of both worlds.

  8. Well actually until the EVs are powered by renewable energy they still will require fossils fuels to power the power stations! So we have some time to go

  9. Being able to extract more oil than we used to think we could doesnt cancel Peak Oil; it just pushes it to the right, and through compound growth, not very far.
    However, thanks to EV's etc, Peak Oil will now probably not be due to declining reserves but declining demand.

  10. Lithium mining for those batteries is just as bad to the environment as CO2 emissions. It will decrease the albedo effect of the earth due to the salt flats salar regions of Bolivia and Chile being turned green instead of white. Similarly how white Sea/glacier ice when melted becomes blue.

    It’s all about renewable bioalgal fuel that works with modern combustion infrastructure.

    Smh 🤦‍♂️

  11. oil is non-renewable soure energy it will run out of supply as we continue to use it since we can replace it in a short period of time. while in electricity we can use hydrogen fuel to make a hydrogen power plan to supply for our EVs. Hydrogen is very abundant and renewable. we can create a huge amount of electricity in a cheaper cost without using nuclear power plant

  12. Doesnt matter what the power source is, the result always greed and consumerism.
    Thats why we hate public transport and power grid infrastructure

  13. Where will the enormous amount of electricity needed to power all those electric cars come from? The very modest amounts of electricity that can be generated through solar panels and wind generators isn't going to make more than a tiny dent. The energy will come from fossil fuels.

  14. That also is assuming that the large oil companies don’t simply buy out or suppress any EMV companies that they deem a threat to their increasingly untenable business model.

  15. So basically if we want to stop middle eastern terrorism (as it's funded by Saudi oil) we need to swap to electric cars.

  16. "We still dont have cars that last long like 200-300" – well fuck , three years later tesla is building a supercar that will last 600+ miles

  17. You will allways need oil for something it's in eveything you own and see and is used in makeing electric cars smelting the steel etc the listed goes on.i do how ever notice the uptick in electric cars I drove to a bigger city and for about 1/20 cars there was a Tesla or a hybrid they are eveywhere

  18. This video fails to mentioned that oil demand is based on so much more than just petrol and diesel.
    Oil is used for everything in our modern world. From the plastics in the very monitor you're watching now, to the clothes you're wearing.

  19. I still believe it's time to cut the plug on oil and design a synthetic man-made alternative, world War 3 or wolrd war 4 will be on oil and we'll nuke ourselves back to the stone age if we don't

  20. If power consumption is greater than predicted due to electric vehicles, then more fossil fuel power plants are possible too. (I am not counting out clean energy, just discounting it due to the duck curve effect.)

  21. So less demand for oil = cheaper oil prices = cheaper petrol. Thank you electric cars for making my gas cheaper

  22. No worries about planes(turbines need heat to void ice in it, cable heat from electrical motors and heavy batteries aren't just ready for planes jus yet), ships and many other heavy/light machinery will still need oil to operate… But car and houses do need better and cleaner solutions… We only have a planet 😀

  23. What a joke. EVs have a massive energy cost that place them out of the reach of poor people. The subsidies overwhelmingly go to virtue signalling rich people. But governments are running out of money and the working class voters are upset at being taxed to make progressive scammers rich.

  24. It will definitely happen sooner than we think as the technology improves and price drops. The real question is who will figure out how to cleanly generate enough electricity to feed the ever increasing batteries that need to be recharged

  25. Very dated.
    China is in full electric mode, many forward thinking countries are pushing deadlines as early as 2030.
    What are the ramifications of the oil industry with electric cars becoming more prevalent?

  26. We're not running out of oil, it's just bullshit to manipulate the market just like they're also saying that we're running out of food.

    Anyway, electric all the way, fuck oil.

    Also, they're focusing so much on battery tech that soon that won't be a problem due to the possibility of wireless charging on the go 🧐

  27. Electric cars are not the solution! More over battery's are not the solution! The production ist to dirty and the efficiency is too bad. The important think is cars are to heavy and big!

  28. This retard assume that electric cars is auto fueled by "clean energy sources" ehm no. Not how it works. Most of the electric cars are currently fueled by coal.

  29. The would isn't running out oil renews , plus the amount of plastic in a ev uses nearly the same amount of petroleum that an older gas vehicle used in there entire life. Green vehicles are far from being green.

  30. The best solution for electric cars would be perfection of the graphene battery. Electric cars can be fully charged in seconds to minutes. Once that happens, all gasoline vehicles will become Obsolete overnight

  31. Only a brief mention of a crash too long ago to remember and no explanation why low demand would cause it to happen again.

  32. You're wrong about China and India they are leading the revolution for electric vehicles China has more EV's on the road than the rest of the world combined and India is coming up right behind them releasing electric motorcycles electric scooters and soon electric cars

  33. Most of the energy that will power the cars will be by burning fuel which would require a lot of new tech to overcome and a lot of change in people life style

  34. This is quickly becoming a reality. Toronto recently started testing their new 100% electric buses, but they likely won't be used for regular use until they can drastically increase the battery capacity. On another note, there has been streetcars in Toronto for years that have always run on electrical energy from the above suspended wires.

  35. 3 years later and it seems like all the " we don't know when will it happen " things are here, we only lack people buying the cars

  36. oil companies are not going to go out of business anytime soon. Power needs to be made for an electric car. How you do that is mostly by burning something. Unless you go Nuke than we will end up burning the cheapest full that is available. That can be a petroleum product, Natural gas or Coal. Don't count on Solar. So by the law of Money if we stop burning it in the cars the price will drop and then it will be cheaper and someone will put it thru a Power station to produce the power for the car.

  37. Do you have sources on your fuel consumption information? I'm having some trouble believing your math with one EV displacing 15 bbl/yr. Assuming you mean 15 bbl (630 gallons) of gasoline, that's over 15,000 miles traveled per vehicle, per year, using a relatively modest fuel economy of 25 mpg per vehicle. With most personal vehicles averaging closer to 30-35 mpg I find it hard to believe that even 10% of them are using 15 bbl/yr. That would mean almost everyone is driving ~20,000 miles per year, which I find unrealistic. At the very least I would think the impact that EV's will have on the oil market presented in the video are wildly overstated. The uptake curve may be the same, but I would expect a disruption in oil much farther down the curve based on what I worked out in this comment.

  38. you STUPID CUNT. I just do not believe that ANYBODY other than a brainless moron would publish this NONSENSE. WHERE do you thing 90% of the energy required to power the electric car manufacturing process comes from : HINT : it's not wind energy !! Also rare earth Minerals for batteries ??? Check no or yes ?? If you take ALL of the existing diesel and benzine cars off the World s roads tomorrow it would reduce refined oil usage by about 2%. Get real you FOOL …. do you understand what exactly or even not, is coming down the track in less than FIVE YEARS for our World ???? Oil will effectively expire in less than five years except for the very wealthy. Water will be a very expensive commodity – more so than even refined oil. Food will not be dleivered. Thi is not doomsday. Look around you and do some research by scientists who KNOW exactly where we are now.

  39. Don't fool yourself, No-One is going to get out of there "Hot-Rods"! Tesla, Has not Produced a Convertible, Car In fact; There is a Lovely, Smart, Woman, by the name of "Simone," Who went to Tesla, and said i want an "Electric-pick-Up-Truck" Now!!! Elon Musk, Only had One Or Two of Those Big Semi Trucks. So; Simone, Bought a "Brand-New" Tesla-Model #3, Sedan, Drove it home, Bought a New "Saws-All," Some New Saws-All Blades, Coveralls, Gloves, Safety Face Shield, Rented a Double Wide Car Garage somewhere in San Francisco, "Put-Her-Finger-InThe-Air and "Cut The Rear Part of the back door down, Removed the Trunk, Located a Used Ford Pick-Up-Truck Bed, Cut that bed up to "Fit" That Tesla, Sedan; She also bought or fabricated a rack to haul things with, like lumber, installed Running lite's for dark night driving! Fabricated a Roll cage and a Device to Re-Enstall the Safety Support,s She needed to make the "TRUCK-LA" Sturdy like it was, When She Bought The Car New. People who are "Smart" Who know what they want in life, Will-Stop-Going-To-College Until they know "WHY-They-Want or NEED-TO-Go-College"?? Other Than get a Degree an a Those Big Student Loans and no Job you want to work at!! I am not sure if Elon Musk, had a chance to look at the work Simone, did after completing the work she wanted, But That "TRUCK-LA" Looks like it was assembled on the assembly line! She did a "Great Job".

  40. I would strongly suspect that it's not running out. You don't claim that somthing you want price for is in abundance do you. Somthing rare has more value. Also those that have money invested in green power very much need us to all think how nessesary their wares are soon to be don't they. Its no more complex than that. And then there are those that feel it should not be used in the name of carbon tax, the big hoax… , there is plenty of coal too so lives, economy and our infrastructure should not be destabilised in such a hurry.

  41. Thank you for this video: it is easily dated because you say "people in China may choose not to buy electric" Welly Well?! now China has implemented a new law that if you want to buy a Gasoline car; you have to pay $10,000. to get a license for it ….. there is no such thing as CHOICE! in that case.

  42. Tesla is going to break the 2020 target one year early as per Elon’s forecast it’s already on the way to reach 500,000 cars in 2019 if the the China factory starts to roll, Which by the way from the construction updates looks-like they will achieve it.

  43. well within a decade. internal combustion engines should have been illegal as soon as Ev's were brought to market. like asbestos…. fucked off asap…

  44. If the US and other countries would stop subsidizing solar and wind, they would all go the way of the goony bird.

  45. The American consumer is alot different then alot of the Eastern consumer Americans are gonna buy what they want they don't care about practicality keep in mind just the f150 sells more trucks a year then brands sell Total in there whole line up Ford sells more then Volkswagen and Audi sells in there whole inventory and forcing regulatory actions is just gonna get another Trump the asshole got elected because people got pissed off at the government control consumer in the us are exact opposite of Western consumers and us consumer are also very different then European consumer I'm hard right but this globalization trend people are trying to push is definitely gonna end badly it will lead us to a another world war and one that could destroy the world

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